[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 201933
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201932 
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-202130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1354
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0232 PM CDT SUN JUN 20 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...TX AND OK PANHANDLES...NE NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 201932Z - 202130Z

LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE LIKELY WITH STORMS THAT
DEVELOP AND MOVE EWD ACROSS THE TX AND OK PANHANDLE. AN ISOLATED
TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST. A WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DRAPED NW TO SE ACROSS THE
WRN AND SRN TX PANHANDLE FROM THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION. SFC TEMPS
HAVE WARMED QUICKLY SOUTHWEST OF THE BOUNDARY AND MLCAPE VALUES
CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE
CAPPING INVERSION OVER THE AREA IS WEAKENING ACROSS THE SW TX
PANHANDLE AND INITIATION APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING JUST TO THE NW OF
AMARILLO. THE AMA 88D VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWS 30 TO 35 KT OF 0-6 KM
SHEAR WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. THE STRONG INSTABILITY
IN PLACE WILL RESULT IN A LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL. 0-2 KM LAPSE RATES
OF 7.5 TO 8.5 C/KM WILL ALSO FAVOR WIND DAMAGE AS WELL.

..BROYLES.. 06/20/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

37030130 36320039 35500015 34910097 34540195 34860277
35590346 36250371 36740317 37090189 

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