[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 201849
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201848 
NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-202045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1353
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0148 PM CDT SUN JUN 20 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO...SE WY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 201848Z - 202045Z

LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE LIKELY AS THE STORMS
GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY THIS
AFTERNOON BY 20Z ACROSS ERN CO AND SE WY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DISTURBANCE STRETCHED OUT FROM WRN NEB
SWWD ACROSS NRN CO WHERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ATTM. OTHER
STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN THE FOOTHILLS WEST OF DENVER. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A CAPPING INVERSION PRESENT EAST OF THE MTNS WHICH
SHOULD INITIALLY LIMIT THE EWD EXTENT OF THE SEVERE THREAT.
HOWEVER...THE MODERATE INSTABILITY (MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500
J/KG) ALREADY IN PLACE SHOULD RESULT IN STRONG UPDRAFTS. ADDITIONAL
SFC HEATING SHOULD ERODE THE CAP AND ALLOW FOR STORMS TO SPREAD EWD
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE CO PLAINS.

THE SRN BRANCH OF THE MID-LEVEL JET IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS SRN
WY AND NERN CO WITH ABOUT 35 TO 40 KT OF FLOW. THE PLATTEVILLE CO
WIND PROFILER CONFIRMS THIS WITH ABOUT 40 KT AT 5 KM WHICH WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. 500 MB TEMPS OF -12C AND STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 7.0 AND 8.0 C/KM WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE
HAIL. DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE CONSIDERING THE STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE.

..BROYLES.. 06/20/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...CYS...

38780572 39220587 40380592 41230596 41550584 41660512
41570422 41040404 39110399 38790416 38740481