[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 201726
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201726 
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-201930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1352
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1226 PM CDT SUN JUN 20 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL...SRN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 201726Z - 201930Z

A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DEVELOPING
CONVECTION OVER NRN FL AND SRN GA THIS AFTERNOON.

SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A SEA BREEZE FRONT ACROSS THE FL
PANHANDLE WHERE CONVECTION IS ONGOING. A STATIONARY FRONT ALSO
EXISTS FROM THE WRN FL PANHANDLE EXTENDING EWD ACROSS SRN GA TO THE
COAST NORTH OF JACKSONVILLE. A BAND OF CUMULUS IS DEVELOPING ALONG
THE BOUNDARY...EVIDENT ON VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS WILL BE THE
MOST LIKELY AREA FOR STRONG CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.

THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY UNSTABLE ALREADY WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND
3000 J/KG ACROSS SRN GA. ALTHOUGH SHEAR IS WEAK...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
SHOWS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 8.0 C/KM JUST SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. THE STRONG INSTABILITY...STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
HIGH SFC MOISTURE (LOW TO MID 70 F DEWPOINTS) WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
SHORT-LIVED MARGINALLY SEVERE PULSE OR MULTICELL STORMS WITH A FEW
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS.

..BROYLES.. 06/20/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...

30748551 31558427 31978304 32168182 32188121 31868110
31208148 30938150 30518167 30428238 30208350 29988438
29678496 29908527 30278575 

WWWW