[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 200623
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200622 
KSZ000-200745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1351
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0122 AM CDT SUN JUN 20 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 200622Z - 200745Z

POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST WITH ONGOING
TSTMS.

AS OF 0607Z...GOODLAND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO
POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS ACROSS SCOTT...WICHITA AND KEARNEY
COUNTIES IN W-CNTRL KS MOVING SEWD AT AROUND 20KTS. THOUGH COMPLEX
APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING A PROGRESSIVELY MORE ORGANIZED COLD
POOL...RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITHIN INFLOW REGION INDICATE A VERY
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH MLCIN VALUES OF OVER 400 J/KG. THIS HIGH
STATIC STABILITY SHOULD LARGELY LIMIT OVERALL DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL WITH ONGOING STORMS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO...HOWEVER...SHOW A MODERATE DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY ABOVE SURFACE INVERSION OWING TO STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND MODERATE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE IN THE 800-750MB LAYER.
THOUGH EFFECTIVE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR REMAINS RELATIVELY
WEAK...STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.

STRENGTHENING SSELY LLJ FROM THE TX PNHDL/WRN OK NWD INTO WRN KS
SHOULD HELP SUSTAIN ONGOING STORMS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED AND A WW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

..MEAD.. 06/20/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...

38340150 38500075 37939972 37389999 37280091 37640164 

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