[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 200027
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200027 
OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-200200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1350
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0727 PM CDT SAT JUN 19 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NM...NWRN TX PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 200027Z - 200200Z

...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WILL SPREAD ACROSS NERN NM TOWARD THE NWRN TX
PANHANDLE.  WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...

ISOLATED SUPERCELLS...MAINLY ACROSS SERN COLFAX AND SAN MIGUEL
COUNTIES...HAVE DEVELOPED AND APPEAR TO BE ROOTED WITHIN A FAIRLY
MOIST...BUT RELATIVELY COOL BOUNDARY LAYER.  THIS ACTIVITY IS
PROPAGATING ESEWD TOWARD THE TX PANHANDLE WHERE A SHARPENING SE-NW
ORIENTED BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM JUST NORTH OF AMA...TO SW OF CAO. 
THIS BOUNDARY MAY BE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION REGIME THAT SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THESE
STORMS MAY SPREAD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE GIVEN THE SCENARIO
MENTIONED.  HOWEVER...AREAL COVERAGE AND THE LIKELIHOOD THAT DIURNAL
COOLING MAY BEGIN TO IMPEDE SEVERE THREAT WILL NEGATE THE ISSUANCE
OF A WATCH.  LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT.

..DARROW.. 06/20/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...ABQ...

35340510 36750440 36910312 35910244 34930350 

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