[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 191910
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191910 
COZ000-192115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1346
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0210 PM CDT SAT JUN 19 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 191910Z - 192115Z

A HAIL OR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST AS STORMS
DEVELOP AND MOVE EWD ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR. A WW MAY BECOME
NECESSARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF UTAH
INTO NRN CO. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EWD TOWARD THE
FRONT RANGE HELPING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON.
SFC TEMPS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO RISE TODAY. HOWEVER...VISIBLE IMAGERY
SHOWS CLEARING HAS DEVELOPED FROM DENVER EWD TO LIMON AND AKRON.
THIS AREA WILL LIKELY HEAT UP QUICKLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH
1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE PROBABLE BY LATE AFTERNOON SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG
UPDRAFTS.

OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A NARROW JET AXIS AT 500 MB EXTENDING ESEWD
ACROSS WY AND NEB WITH 30 TO 40 KT OF MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER MOST OF
CO. THIS IS RESULTING IN STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF 50 TO 60
KT WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORMS WILL ORGANIZE
AS THEY MOVE EWD OUT OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A HAIL THREAT OR
BRIEF WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR.

..BROYLES.. 06/19/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...

37890299 37230320 37070376 37090460 37180521 38110543
38640537 40290522 40410476 40400379 40080315 39900314 

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