[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 191800
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191759 
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-192000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1345
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 PM CDT SAT JUN 19 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN OK...WRN AR AND NE TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 191759Z - 192000Z

A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE CONVECTION MOVES
EWD ACROSS FAR ERN OK...WRN AR AND FAR NE TX. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL
FOR INDIVIDUAL STORMS WILL BE BRIEF AND WIND DAMAGE SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.

WV IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED MCV ROTATING ACROSS SERN OK AND NE
TX. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CONVECTION IS APPROACHING A NARROW
MOISTURE AXIS WITH STRONG INSTABILITY EXTENDING FROM TEXARKANA NWD
TO FT SMITH WHERE SBCAPE VALUES CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 2500 TO 3500
J/KG. THE LINE OF STORMS CURRENTLY ACROSS ERN OK SHOULD STRENGTHEN
AS THEY MOVE EWD INTO INCREASING INSTABILITY. THE DQU PROFILER
ACROSS FAR SW AR SHOWS ABOUT 20 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A THREAT FOR STRONG PULSE OR MULTICELL STORMS.
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS 0-2 KM LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 7.0 C/KM
ACROSS SW AR AND FAR SE OK. AS THE LINE MOVES EWD INTO THIS AXIS...A
FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.

..BROYLES.. 06/19/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...

33209372 32379463 31799650 31929731 32539753 32979713
33149603 34159504 35389486 35829407 35379324 34069324 

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