[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 190456
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190456 
OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-190630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1344
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1156 PM CDT FRI JUN 18 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...OK/TX PANHANDLES SWD TO TX SOUTH PLAINS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 498...

VALID 190456Z - 190630Z

HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREATS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE TX
SOUTH PLAINS NWD ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE...WITH SOMEWHAT LESS OF A
THREAT OVER THE OK PANHANDLE.

LATE EVENING SURFACE MESO-ANALYSES COMBINED WITH REGIONAL RADAR
IMAGERY INDICATED THE COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG
CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS ANTICYCLONE...EXTENDED FROM NRN AR WWD ACROSS
CENTRAL OK TO THE NRN TX PANHANDLE.  LARGE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM
EARLIER CONVECTION OVER OK/NRN TX...NOW EXTENDED FROM SOUTH OF FTW
TO ABI TO WEST OF LBB AND NWD TO NEAR DHT.  AIR MASS ACROSS WW 498
IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND WILL SUPPORT THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

WELL ESTABLISHED COLD POOL WITH LINEAR MCS OVER THE SRN TX PANHANDLE
AND THE TX SOUTH PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO AID THE EWD PROPAGATION OF
THIS ACTIVITY AT 25 KT.  THIS SOMEWHAT SLOW MOVEMENT SHOULD LIMIT
THE SEVERE WIND THREAT...THOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
LIKELY.  LARGE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS MOVED WWD CLOSE TO THE NM/TX
BORDER IN THE TX PANHANDLE AREA...RESULTING IN LITTLE MOVEMENT OF
STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE ALONG THE COLD FRONT.  GIVEN
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND THE TX PANHANDLE BEING CLOSER TO STRONGER
FLOW ALOFT...SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE POSSIBLE.  IF A COLD POOL CAN BECOME ESTABLISHED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...THEN A FORWARD PROPAGATING
MCS WOULD LIKELY TRACK SEWD ALONG THE FRONT/ INSTABILITY GRADIENT
INTO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE.

..PETERS.. 06/19/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

36889988 33339996 33300207 34640198 34840301 36950306 

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