[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 182206
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182205 
MTZ000-IDZ000-ORZ000-WAZ000-190000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1339
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0505 PM CDT FRI JUN 18 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ORE/SE WA/WRN MT/SW AND CNTRL ID

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 182205Z - 190000Z

ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

BROAD FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF PACIFIC NW UPPER TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED TSTMS FROM ERN ORE/SE WA INTO CNTRL
ID/SW MT...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT INTO EARLY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 70S/80S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
THIS AFTERNOON FROM ERN OR INTO ID...WHILE H5 TEMPS OF -16C TO -18C
OVERSPREAD THE REGION. RESULTANT STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE
ORDER OF 7.5 C/KM /OR GREATER/ AND MUCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG WILL
SUPPORT LARGE HAIL WITH MOST VIGOROUS TSTMS. ISOLD DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL OWING TO LARGE LOW LEVEL
TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS AND BACKGROUND WIND FIELDS.

ISOLD/MARGINAL NATURE OF ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE.

..GUYER.. 06/18/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TFX...PIH...MSO...BOI...OTX...PDT...

47541775 47911570 46941262 44941137 43831276 43171449
42561870 44301920 45981874 

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