[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 182145
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182145 
COZ000-UTZ000-182245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1338
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0445 PM CDT FRI JUN 18 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO NWWD ACROSS CENTRAL/NWRN CO TO NERN UT

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 182145Z - 182245Z

ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SERN CO.  SMALL AREAL
COVERAGE SHOULD PRECLUDE THE ISSUANCE OF A WW. A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL
INTO NWRN CO TO NERN UT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

VIS IMAGERY INDICATED AN ISOLATED STORM OVER THE SERN CO COUNTY OF
LAS ANIMAS.  A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS EXISTS ACROSS SERN CO...
WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTING THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SUSTAINED
STORM ORGANIZATION WITH ROTATING UPDRAFTS.  ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY
DEVELOP NWWD ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CUSTER AND SAGUACHE
COUNTIES WITH A THREAT FOR HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS AS THEY MOVE EWD OFF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS.  ATTM...MORE
WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED SWD ACROSS NERN-ERN NM WHERE
INSTABILITY IS GREATER...WITH ONLY SMALL AREAL COVERAGE ACROSS SERN
CO LIKELY PRECLUDING THE ISSUANCE OF A WW.

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NWWD ACROSS
CENTRAL/NWRN CO TO NERN UT...AS STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
WRN SLOPES OF THESE MOUNTAINS AND MOVE ENELY IN 30 KT OF MEAN WSWLY
FLOW.  SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT STORM ROTATION...BUT
MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE AREAL COVERAGE FOR A
MORE ORGANIZED THREAT. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

..PETERS.. 06/18/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...GJT...

37060325 37000484 37970533 38590600 38390763 38340884
39660964 40320969 40910737 40830493 39910476 38890414
37910310 37110267 

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