[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 182102
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182101 COR
INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-182245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1336
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0401 PM CDT FRI JUN 18 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IL/SRN IN/WRN KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 182101Z - 182245Z

CORRECTED FOR STATES AFFECTED

ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE NEEDED WITHIN NEXT HOUR OR SO ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SRN IL/WRN KY -- AND POSSIBLY INTO SRN IN -- EAST OF WW 495.

MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXISTS DOWNSTREAM OF ORGANIZED
MULTICELL/SUPERCELL CLUSTERS ENTERING INTO SW IL...CROSSING THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS OF 2015-2030Z. EXTRAPOLATION SUGGESTS THESE
TSTMS MAY BREACH THE ERN PORTION OF WW 495 AROUND/AFTER THE 22Z
TIMEFRAME...LIKELY NECESSITATING AN ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE TO THE
EAST.

LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS/MODIFIED 18Z ILX RAOB PORTRAYS DOWNSTREAM
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS SRN IL/SRN IN CHARACTERIZED BY 1000-2000 J/KG
SBCAPE...WITH SBCAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000-3000 J/KG SWD ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER INTO WRN KY. PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE
HAIL...ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-35 KTS AND BACKGROUND
VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH MCV WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
SUPERCELL/ISOLD TORNADO POTENTIAL...NAMELY ACROSS SRN IL/WRN KY.

..GUYER.. 06/18/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

39158863 39258759 39208651 38338608 37248657 36708764
36628920 36848941 38228899 

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