[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 182051
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182051 
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-182245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1337
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0351 PM CDT FRI JUN 18 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN OK...NORTH TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 182051Z - 182245Z

CONVECTION WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
AS IT SLOWLY SPREADS NORTH AND EWD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM BECAUSE THE WINDOW FOR SEVERE SHOULD
REMAIN BRIEF.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG STORMS ARE CURRENTLY LOCATED EAST TO
WEST ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY. STRONG
INSTABILITY IS PRESENT IMMEDIATELY SOUTH OF THE ACTIVITY WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 70S F. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO FUEL THE
CONVECTION THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG
THE RED RIVER SHOW ABOUT 20 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WHICH SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR MULTICELL SEVERE STORMS.

FARTHER NW...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS 35 TO 40 KT MAINLY ACROSS WRN
OK WHERE A THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS WILL EXIST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
LARGE HAIL WILL BE IN WRN OK WHERE LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPER.
HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS STRONGER ACROSS NE TX AND SERN OK. THIS
WILL ENHANCE THE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL THERE. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD
WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS.

..BROYLES.. 06/18/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...

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