[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 181928
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181928 
TXZ000-NMZ000-182130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1334
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 PM CDT FRI JUN 18 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE...W TX...NE NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 181928Z - 182130Z

AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
NE NM...THE TX PANHANDLE AND ON THE CAPROCK SOUTH OF AMARILLO. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY SUPERCELL STORMS
THAT DEVELOP. A WW IS BEING CONSIDERED ATTM.

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED ACROSS THE SRN
TX PANHANDLE EXTENDING NWWD INTO NE NM. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY IN W
TX...MLCAPE VALUES ARE CURRENTLY 2000-3000 J/KG. THE INSTABILITY
WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND THIS COUPLED WITH STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN RAPID STORM FORMATION ONCE INITIATION
OCCURS. STORMS WILL MOST LIKELY INITIATE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND MOVE
EWD ACROSS NE NM AND THE TX PANHANDLE. INITIATION IS ALSO POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY IN THE STRONGER INSTABILITY.

THE 18Z SOUNDING FOR AMARILLO SHOWS 30 TO 35 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION...THE HODOGRAPH
SHOWS VEERING LOW-LEVEL WINDS WITH SFC-3 KM SRH AROUND 200 M2/S2
WHICH RESULT IN AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. ALTHOUGH TEMPS ARE
FAIRLY WARM ALOFT...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

..BROYLES.. 06/18/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

33810398 34270503 34950553 35720575 36500551 36810411
36480356 36150305 35580158 35070111 33340106 33130222
33500338 

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