[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 182020
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182020 
WYZ000-IDZ000-UTZ000-182215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1335
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0320 PM CDT FRI JUN 18 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN ID...WRN WY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 182020Z - 182215Z

SCATTERED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A SEVERE THREAT THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS SERN ID INTO WRN WY.

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SMALL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS EXTENDING NWD
INTO SERN ID WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 40S F. THIS ALONG WITH
TEMPS AROUND 70 F ARE CONTRIBUTING TO SBCAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1200
J/KG. STORMS ARE FEEDING OFF OF THE INSTABILITY...TRACKING ENEWD
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING VORTICITY MAX. THE INSTABILITY WILL BE
SUFFICIENT COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR
STRONG UPDRAFTS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MODERATE SPEED SHEAR WITH
SOME VEERING BETWEEN 700 AND 500 MB WHICH SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH
FOR A MARGINAL SUPERCELL THREAT. INVERTED V PROFILES AND 500 MB
TEMPS OF -16 TO -18C WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS.

THE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD INTO WRN WY BY THE EVENING
HOURS WHERE THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BECOME MINIMAL DUE TO
STABILIZATION.

..BROYLES.. 06/18/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RIW...SLC...PIH...BOI...

42021201 41961374 42291451 43131367 44071117 43820998
42630963 42191038 42111119 

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