[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 181820
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181820 
ILZ000-MOZ000-182015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1333
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0120 PM CDT FRI JUN 18 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MO...IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 181820Z - 182015Z

CONVECTION CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS ERN MO WILL SPREAD EWD AND
POSE A HAIL OR WIND DAMAGE THREAT. A WW IS CURRENTLY BEING
CONSIDERED FOR THE AREA.

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM WRN IL SSWWD TO ECNTRL
MO. STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG AND SE OF THE FRONT WILL HELP STORM
INITIATION TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
SHOWS SBCAPE OF 500 TO 1500 J/KG ACROSS CNTRL IL TO CNTRL MO. AS
INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...STRONG UPDRAFTS
WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE EWD INTO WRN AND CNTRL IL.

THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IS GOOD FOR MULTICELL SEVERE STORMS WITH THE
BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR CURRENTLY OVER NE MO. IF INSTABILITY INCREASES
INTO THE MODERATE CATEGORY...A SUPERCELL THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST. THE
HAIL WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO SUPERCELLS BUT WIND DAMAGE WILL BE
THE GREATER THREAT CONSIDERING THE UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES AND
STRONG SPEED SHEAR WITH HEIGHT.

..BROYLES.. 06/18/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...DVN...SGF...

40128835 38528877 36598988 36579011 36539120 36689233
37539220 39499141 40399079 40458953 

WWWW