[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 181758
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181758 
VAZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-182000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1332
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 PM CDT FRI JUN 18 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...VA/ERN WV/MD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 181758Z - 182000Z

ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...WW IS NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED.

AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FROM WRN PA INTO WRN WV. STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES /8.0 C/KM IN 0-3 KM/ HAVE DEVELOPED -- ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CNTRL/ERN VA -- OWING TO PLENTIFUL INSOLATION AND 80S/LOWER 90S SFC
TEMPERATURES. COMBINED WITH LOWER 70F DEWPOINTS...LATEST OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS SUGGESTS MEAN MIXED CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2000-2500 J/KG AS
OF 17Z. ALTHOUGH BACKGROUND WLY WINDS ARE MARGINAL -- MID LEVEL
WINDS 25-30 KTS PER RUC DIAGNOSTICS AND AVAILABLE VWPS -- ISOLD WIND
DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH MOST VIGOROUS TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON.

ISOLD NATURE OF DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE NECESSITY
FOR WW. LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL WILL BE MITIGATED BY HIGH FREEZING
LEVELS/WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

..GUYER.. 06/18/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...

39437676 38537653 37657660 36847680 36817776 36757975
37348126 38338083 39457937 39597844 

WWWW