[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 181717
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181717 
NCZ000-SCZ000-181915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1331
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1217 PM CDT FRI JUN 18 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC...ERN SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 181717Z - 181915Z

SCATTERED STORM INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
ACROSS CNTRL NC AND CNTRL SC. THE DEVELOPING STORMS WILL HAVE A
POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NEAR HENDERSON NC SSWWD
TO AUGUSTA GA. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH AND SFC
HEATING HAS HELPED INITIATE ISOLATED CONVECTION SOUTH OF RALEIGH.
OTHER STORMS SHOULD INITIATE ALONG THE TROUGH NORTH OF RALEIGH AND
SOUTH NEAR CHARLESTON BY 19Z.

VAD PROFILES ACROSS ERN NC SHOW UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITH ABOUT 15
KT OF FLOW IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS. THIS WILL BE MARGINAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...STRONG INSTABILITY IS LOCATED ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS AND THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONG UPDRAFTS.
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NEAR 8.0 C/KM WHICH COUPLED WITH MID TO
UPPER 70S F SFC DEWPOINTS WILL FAVOR WIND DAMAGE AS THE PRIMARY
THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS.

..BROYLES.. 06/18/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...

35777567 35227558 35007614 34627651 34717679 34407762
33887801 33877860 33507912 33137926 32168087 32658125
33238137 34347991 35037908 35987769 36377662 36347592 

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