[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 181622
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181621 
SCZ000-GAZ000-NCZ000-181815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1329
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1121 AM CDT FRI JUN 18 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN GA...WRN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 181621Z - 181815Z

DEVELOPING STORMS ACROSS NRN GA AND CNTRL AL WILL INTENSIFY AND MAY
HAVE A WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON. IF A COLD POOL CAN
ORGANIZE...A WW WILL BE CONSIDERED LATER THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
THIS SCENARIO APPEARS UNLIKELY ATTM.

INSTABILITY IS INCREASING THIS MORNING ACROSS NRN GA AND AL IN
RESPONSE TO SFC HEATING WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG. THIS
COMBINED WITH LIFT FROM A MINOR SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY IS
RESULTING IN NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS MORNING. STORM COVERAGE
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS PVA FROM THE
SHORTWAVE SPREADS EWD ACROSS NRN GA. VAD WIND PROFILES ACROSS NW GA
SHOW ABOUT 20 KT OF FLOW IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS WITH SUBTLE BACKED
FLOW AT THE MID-LEVELS. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL WIND
DAMAGE POTENTIAL WITH ANY STORMS THAT PULSE UP. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
SHOWS MID 70S F SFC DEWPOINTS ALONG WITH 0-2 KM LAPSE RATES AROUND
7.5 C/KM WHICH WILL FAVOR WET DOWNBURSTS. A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE
THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS AS A LARGER
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS SPREADS SLOWLY EWD INTO WRN SC BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

..BROYLES.. 06/18/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...FFC...

33078187 32628254 32688431 33218469 34298406 35078307
34878107 34508071 

WWWW