[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 181549
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181549 
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-181745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1328
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1049 AM CDT FRI JUN 18 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...WRN AR AND FAR SW MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 181549Z - 181745Z

A BACKBUILDING LINE OF STORMS ACROSS CNTRL OK MAY REINTENSIFY AS IT
MOVES EWD SLOWLY. IN ADDITION...NEW STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
ACROSS SERN OK...POSSIBLY REACHING SEVERE LIMITS THIS AFTERNOON. AS
A RESULT...THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AND A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON.

OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY ACROSS SE
OK WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE ALREADY 2500 TO 3000 J/KG WHICH IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE NORMAN 12Z SOUNDING. THIS STRONG INSTABILITY
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS STRENGTHENING
THE ONGOING CONVECTION AND HELPING TO INITIATE NEW STORMS. STORMS
ARE DEVELOPING ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS SRN AND ERN
OK AND COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON.

THE NORMAN 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS 30 TO 35 KT AT 500 MB AND PROFILERS
INDICATE THAT THIS STRONGER FLOW EXTENDS WWD ACROSS SW OK. AS THIS
STRONGER FLOW SPREADS INTO ERN OK TODAY...IT WILL CREATE STRONGER
SHEAR WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR MULTICELL SEVERE STORMS
CONSIDERING THE MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY PRESENT. AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES CONTINUE TO STEEPEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THE WIND
DAMAGE POTENTIAL WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS ERN OK. A CLUSTER
SHOULD DEVELOP AND MOVE ESEWD INTO WRN AR BY LATE AFTERNOON.

..BROYLES.. 06/18/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

34249772 33759684 34069455 34419260 35229294 36399392
36849455 36669535 35599647 34819726 

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