[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 180629
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180629 
OKZ000-KSZ000-180800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1327
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0129 AM CDT FRI JUN 18 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL/SERN KS INTO N-CNTRL/NERN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 494...

VALID 180629Z - 180800Z

POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD E OF KS PORTION WW BY 0700Z. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MONITORED AND AN ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE REQUIRED.

AS OF 0611Z...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED LEADING EDGE OF GUST FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH MCS FROM ERN PORTIONS OF HARVEY/SEDGWICK/SUMNER
COUNTIES IN S-CNTRL KS SWWD INTO LOGAN AND GRADY COUNTIES OF CNTRL
OK. WHILE THIS GUST FRONT HAS ADVANCED AHEAD OF OK PORTION OF
MCS...IT REMAINS NEARLY COINCIDENT WITH HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES OVER
S-CNTRL KS...SUGGESTING MORE OF AN UPRIGHT TILT TO LEADING EDGE OF
SYSTEM. OVER THE PAST HOUR SEVERAL GUSTS IN THE 40-50MPH RANGE HAVE
BE REPORTED IN OBSERVATIONS OVER GRANT/GARFIELD/KINGFISHER AND LOGAN
COUNTIES IN OK AND AT THE WICHITA AIRPORT.

06Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATES QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY INTERSECTING
MCS OVER FAR S-CNTRL KS AND THEN EXTENDING EWD ROUGHLY ALONG THE
KS/OK BORDER. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT STRONGEST STORMS ARE
THOSE ALONG AND N OF THIS BOUNDARY WHERE OBJECTIVE FIELDS STILL
INDICATE MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. THOUGH LOCAL PROFILERS/VWPS SHOW
RELATIVELY WEAK MID-LEVEL FLOW...EWD SYSTEM MOTION OF 35KTS AND
WELL-ORGANIZED COLD POOL MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO PROMOTE ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...IN ADDITION TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

EXTRAPOLATION PLACES LEADING EDGE OF SYSTEM /S-CNTRL KS PORTION/ E
OF WW 494 BY 0700Z. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED
AND A NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED.

..MEAD.. 06/18/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...

38669856 38629503 35509512 35629849 

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