[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 171935
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171934 
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-172130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1315
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0234 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...OH VALLEY AND SRN GREAT LAKES

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 171934Z - 172130Z

STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL ACROSS
SRN IL...IND...NW OH AND SRN LOWER MI.

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC TROUGH JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
NEWD ACROSS SRN IL INTO NRN IND AND SRN LOWER MI. LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND SFC HEATING IS HELPING STORMS TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE
ALONG THE WEST EDGE OF INSTABILITY WHERE MLCAPE VALUES CURRENTLY
RANGE FROM 1250 TO 1750 J/KG. THE WIND PROFILER IN NW IND ONLY SHOWS
ABOUT 20 KT AT 500 MB WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH GIVEN THE INSTABILITY FOR
A FEW SEVERE STORMS. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE CURRENTLY GREATER
THAN 7.0 C/KM ACROSS WRN IND AND SRN IL...WHICH MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR
A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS.

..BROYLES.. 06/17/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...LMK...IWX...GRR...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

37598963 39028875 41818498 42298346 41448229 38818546
37218831 

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