[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 170331
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170331 
TXZ000-170430-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1312
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1031 PM CDT WED JUN 16 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK PANHANDLE SWD ACROSS TX PANHANDLE AND WEST
CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 485...

VALID 170331Z - 170430Z

DAMAGING WIND THREAT EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER ACROSS THE NRN TX
PANHANDLE DURING THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS...WITH AN ISOLATED HAIL/HEAVY
RAIN THREAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN TX PANHANDLE AND THE SOUTH
PLAINS OF WEST TX.

REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED AN ORGANIZED BOW ECHO OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
TX PANHANDLE AT 03Z MOVING TO THE ESE AT 30-35 KT.  THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY WITH THIS BOW IS INTERSECTING A SECOND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY TO THE NNE OF AMA ATTM.  OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SUGGEST THIS
BOW ECHO SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE ESEWD INTO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE
THROUGH 05Z ALONG AN INSTABILITY GRADIENT...RESULTING IN A CONTINUED
DAMAGING WIND THREAT.  HOWEVER...WEAKER INSTABILITY/STRONGER
INHIBITION ACROSS WRN OK WOULD SUGGEST THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
DECREASE AS THE BOW APPROACHES THE TX/WRN OK BORDER BY AROUND 05Z. 
SMALL AREAL COVERAGE OF DAMAGING WIND THREAT ACROSS THE ERN TX
PANHANDLE WILL PRECLUDE THE ISSUANCE OF AN ADDITIONAL WW.  

30 KT SLY LLJ WILL PROVIDE MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE INFLOW TO THE
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER WEST CENTRAL TX AND THE BOW ECHO
OVER THE TX PANHANDLE TO MAINTAIN THIS ACTIVITY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. ISOLATED HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS
WITH THE ELEVATED ACTIVITY OVER THE SRN TX PANHANDLE AND THE SOUTH
PLAINS OF WEST TX.

..PETERS.. 06/17/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...

33040232 34150235 35220196 36070185 36410098 36430011
35660001 34650026 34090140 33050182 

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