[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 172002
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172001 
TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-172130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1316
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0301 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM...TX PANHANDLE...WRN OK PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 172001Z - 172130Z

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS. A WW WILL BE ISSUED BY 21Z.

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY / WARM FRONT FROM NERN NM
SEWD TO NEAR AMA AND JUST N OF CDS.  AIR MASS ALONG AND S OF THIS
BOUNDARY HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-3500 J/KG.

MODIFIED 18Z AMARILLO SOUNDINGS SHOWS AREA IS UNCAPPED.  MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING THROUGH NM...AS EVIDENT ON TUCUMCARI
PROFILER WITH BACKING WINDS ALOFT.  THIS FEATURE WILL HELP
STRENGTHEN SHEAR PROFILES WITH SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND LARGE INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR VERY LARGE HAIL., 
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH LOCALLY LOWER LCL HEIGHTS
AND ENHANCED 0-1 SRH NEAR OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES.

..JEWELL.. 06/17/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

33910407 35310458 36410502 36990456 36960185 35840009
34340006