[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 162351
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162351 
TXZ000-NMZ000-170215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1310
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0651 PM CDT WED JUN 16 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NM...W AND SW TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 162351Z - 170215Z

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF THEM SEVERE WITH HAIL AND
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.  

STORMS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE IN WEAK MID / UPPER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. 
00Z AMA AND MAF SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY SUB CLOUD LAYERS FAVORABLE
FOR EVAPORATION AND COLD POOL PRODUCTION.  STEEP LAPSE RATES IN
EXCESS OF 8.8 C/KM INDICATE THREAT FOR SOME SEVERE HAIL WITH THE
STRONGEST CELLS.  HIGHEST THREAT WILL BE WITH ANY CELLS THAT CAN
PROPAGATE SWWD...MAXIMIZING SRH.

INCREASING SELY LOW LEVEL JET WILL MAINTAIN MOIST INFLOW...THUS NEW
CELL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MOST LIKELY S AND E OF CURRENT CONVECTION
ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

..JEWELL.. 06/16/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

34750434 34750205 32280211 31060176 30000221 30000323
30480418 32430436 

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