[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 162201
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162201 
WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-MOZ000-162330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1308
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0501 PM CDT WED JUN 16 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL-ERN IA INTO SRN WI/NRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 483...

VALID 162201Z - 162330Z

HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS ACROSS CENTRAL-
ERN IA INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE
IN AREAL COVERAGE ACROSS SRN WI AND NWRN IL.

LATE AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSES/REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS SHOW A WELL
DEFINED MCV AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVING SLOWLY ENEWD ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL-NERN IA ATTM.  A WARM FRONT EXTENDED ESE FROM THIS
SURFACE LOW TO ALONG THE WI/IL BORDER...WITH A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING NEWD FROM SWRN TO NERN WI.  AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADS
EWD AHEAD OF THE MCV AND COMBINES WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A
PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH AND GUST FRONT OVER ERN IA...AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE EWD EXTENDING BOUNDARIES... TSTMS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE.  THE GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL
THROUGH 00Z IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS NERN-EAST CENTRAL IA...WHERE
ENHANCED UVVS AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH THE MCV WILL INTERACT WITH
THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.  FARTHER EAST ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN
WI AND NRN IL...WEAKER DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL.

..PETERS.. 06/16/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...EAX...

40579435 42049299 42989311 43629331 43889242 44379064
43408917 42658876 41688903 40849059 40589099 

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