[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 162100
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162059 
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-162300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1307
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0359 PM CDT WED JUN 16 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...E CENTRAL IL...CENTRAL IN...SWRN OH...NRN KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 162059Z - 162300Z

ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS
THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z.  ANY TORNADOES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE
BRIEF.

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS RETREATING WARM FRONT FROM JUST N OF STL EWD
TO NEAR IND AND DAY.  MODERATE INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THIS FRONT WITH MLCAPES AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG.

FORCING CURRENTLY WEAK UNDER WRN EDGE OF UPPER RIDGE...HOWEVER...LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL LIKELY CAUSE A FEW SEVERE STORMS TO
DEVELOP.  HIGHEST THREAT AREA WILL BE WITHIN THETA-E AXIS WHERE
TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S F...AND WHERE THIS
AXIS CROSSES THE WARM FRONT...OVER E CENTRAL IL AND CENTRAL IN.

AREA VWPS INDICATE MARGINAL LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALONG WARM FRONT WITH
0-1 SRH GENERALLY 50-80 M2/S2. THIS...IN COMBINATION WITH 0-3 KM
CAPE VALUES UP TO 100 J/KG MAY ALLOW A FEW STORMS TO BRIEFLY PRODUCE
A TORNADO.

..JEWELL.. 06/16/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...CLE...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...

38628640 38778892 39218861 40008837 40538803 40548526
40438298 39248254 38658276 

WWWW