[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 161943
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161942 
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-162215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1306
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0242 PM CDT WED JUN 16 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...MS...AL...SWRN TN...SERN LA...WRN FL PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 161942Z - 162215Z

ISOLATED SEVERE DOWNBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. 
WW NOT ANTICIPATED.

MLCAPES NOW EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG WITHIN VERY MOIST AIR MASS
CHARACTERIZED BY MID 70S F DEWPOINTS.  UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO WEST IS
HELPING TO PRODUCE 20-30 KT UNIDIRECTIONAL SLY FLOW ABOVE 850
MB...WHICH IS CAUSING STORMS TO MOVE NWD WITH SPEEDS OF 20-30 KTS. 
CONTINUED HEATING / DESTABILIZATION ALONG WITH GRADUAL INCREASE IN
STORM DEPTH / INTENSITIES WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SVR
DOWNBURSTS.  POOR MID AND UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL MINIMIZE HAIL
THREAT WITH ONLY VERY SMALL HAIL EXPECTED.

..JEWELL.. 06/16/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX...LCH...

30288493 30208582 30418704 30258791 30678802 30258821
30348878 30208934 30258966 30018977 29889057 30119175
31029153 31989120 33709093 35169026 35578838 35438670
34238551 31018500 

WWWW