[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 161905
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161905 
TXZ000-NMZ000-162130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1305
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0205 PM CDT WED JUN 16 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM...WRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 161905Z - 162130Z

TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN
NM/SWRN TX AND ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS ERN NM.  TSTMS MAY CONTAIN
SEVERE WINDS AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAILSTONES. 

TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED RAPIDLY OVER THE SWRN TX/SERN NM MOUNTAINS. 
OTHER TSTMS WILL POSSIBLY DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE IN SAN
MIGUEL...GUADALUPE...WRN QUAY AND DE BACA COUNTIES IN NM BY 22Z. 
SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS ADVECTED UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S DEW POINTS
WWD TO THE MOUNTAINS AND GIVEN STRONG HEATING...MLCAPES WERE
2000-2500 J/KG ON THE HIGH PLAINS.  A CAP STILL REMAINS ON THE
PLAINS...BUT CONTINUED HEATING WILL ERODE CINH SUFFICIENTLY TO
SUPPORT TSTMS ALONG ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT EMANATE FROM THE
HIGHER TERRAIN STORMS. 

TROPOSPHERIC FLOW IS WEAK AND TSTMS WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME STAYING
ORGANIZED FOR ANY LENGTH OF TIME.  HOWEVER...GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY AND DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS OF 30-35 DEGREES...SEVERE
WINDS MAY OCCUR AS THE STORMS COLLAPSE.  STRONGER UPDRAFTS MAY
CONTAIN SMALL HAIL AS WELL.  

ACTIVITY MAY MOVE EWD WITH TIME INTO THE WRN TX PNHDL...ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 62 /HOBBS NM-SEMINOLE TX/.  ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH
A COUPLE HOURS AFTER DARK.

..RACY.. 06/16/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

29550435 31700451 32650532 33840541 35460482 35930290
35500245 33880271 31920267 29910253 

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