[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 161509
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161508 
KSZ000-COZ000-161645-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1299
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1008 AM CDT WED JUN 16 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO...SWRN KS

CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE 

VALID 161508Z - 161645Z

PARTS OF SERN CO AND SWRN KS WILL BE UPGRADED TO A CATEGORICAL
MODERATE RISK BASED ON A 15% TORNADO PROBABILITY.

FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT WWD ACROSS
THE SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WITH LOWER 60S DEW POINTS AS FAR WEST AS
LA JUNTA AND MID 50S AT PUEBLO.  THOUGH THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENT IS
CAPPED...TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY
THE PALMER DIVIDE AREA BY MID-AFTERNOON.  AS THE PLAINS BOUNDARY
LAYER HEATS...CINH WILL ERODE AND TSTMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG
BOUNDARIES LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.  12Z H5 ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT
THE UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EJECTING NEWD AND UPSTREAM
PROFILERS INDICATE WSWLY H5 WINDS TO 35 KTS.  GIVEN SELY FLOW
BENEATH THE WSWLY FLOW ALOFT...SUFFICIENT SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR
SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO
BE THREATS.

..RACY.. 06/16/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

37040128 37140281 37820429 38610438 38860378 38730254
37710122 

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