[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 161525
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161524 
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-161700-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1300
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1024 AM CDT WED JUN 16 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MS VLY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 161524Z - 161700Z

ISOLD TORNADO/WIND THREATS ARE INCREASING ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER
MS VLY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NEXT MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX EJECTING NWD ALONG
ERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH AXIS.  WIDESPREAD TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING OVER THE SABINE RVR VLY AREA.  JUST TO THE EAST ACROSS THE
LOWER MS VLY...VSBL IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY
AND WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID DESTABILIZATION OF THE NEAR TROPICAL AIR
MASS.  IN FACT...SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE AND ERN PART OF
THE UPSTREAM MCS IS INTENSIFYING OVER CNTRL LA.

MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A CORRIDOR OF BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW ROUGHLY FROM
BATON ROUGE TO ALEXANDRIA AND FORT POLK VWP SHOWS AROUND 23 KTS OF
0-1KM SHEAR.  GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR WITHIN LOW LCL
ENVIRONMENT...ISOLD TORNADOES/WINDS WILL BE THREATS AND MOST OF THE
AREA WILL BE UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK ON THE 1630Z DAY 1 UPDATE. 
THE TORNADO/WIND THREATS WILL TRANSLATE NEWD WITH TIME INTO PARTS OF
CNTRL/SWRN MS.

..RACY.. 06/16/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

30369293 31349245 32879215 33509092 33568918 32508908
30968971 30019054 30029123