[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 161415
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161415 
KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-161545-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1298
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0915 AM CDT WED JUN 16 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND MIDDLE TN INTO THE LOWER OH VLY

CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS 

VALID 161415Z - 161545Z

AN ISOLD BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO COULD OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF WRN/MIDDLE
TN INTO WRN KY AND SRN IND THIS MORNING...WITH THREATS INCREASING
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG/NORTH OF THE OH RVR.

VERY MOIST AIR MASS HAS ADVECTED NWD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH
SURFACE DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S.  H85 ANALYSIS
DEPICTS A CLOSED CIRCULATION VCNTY SRN MO WITH A SPEED MAX LIFTING
NWD ACROSS THE LOWER OH VLY.  THOUGH LIGHT WINDS WERE OBSERVED AT
THE SURFACE...THE VEERING AND INCREASING WIND FLOW IN THE LOWER
GATES NOTED ON PADUCAH VWP SUGGEST NEARLY 25 KTS OF 0-1KM SHEAR. 
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN FORMING RAPIDLY IN UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT OVER WRN
TN AND THESE SHOULD INCREASE AS THEY MOVE NEWD TOWARD WRN KY AND SRN
IND.  GIVEN LOW LCL ENVIRONMENT AND MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE LOW LEVEL
SHEAR...ISOLD BRIEF TORNADOES MAY OCCUR.

NEW ETA SUGGESTS THAT THE H85 SPEED MAX LIFTS RAPIDLY NEWD INTO OH
LATE THIS MORNING...THEN A NEW JETLET...NOW LOCATED OVER THE LOWER
MS VLY...WILL TRANSLATE NEWD INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.  THIS MAY ENHANCE THE TORNADO THREAT ACROSS PARTS OF THE
LOWER OH VLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...NAMELY SRN IND INTO SWRN OH.  AS
SUCH...PARTS OF THE REGION MAY BE UPGRADED TO A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT
RISK ON THE 1630 UTC DAY 1 UPDATE.

..RACY.. 06/16/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...MEG...

35228941 37868824 38938707 39318581 38798490 37668566
35098736 

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