[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 152006
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152005 
TXZ000-NMZ000-152200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1291
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0305 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM...W TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 152005Z - 152200Z

ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY TSTMS THAT DEVELOP
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  COVERAGE DOES NOT SEEM TO
WARRANT A WW.

VSBL SATELLITE SHOWS TCU GROWING INTO TSTMS ALONG THE DRYLINE IN
QUAY-CURRY-ROOSEVELT-ERN CHAVES COUNTIES IN NM.  TSTMS ARE LIKELY
HIGH-BASED...FEEDING ON UNSTABLE DRY PARCELS WEST OF THE DRYLINE
ATTM.  TUCUMCARI PROFILER SHOWS LESS THAN 20 KTS OF FLOW THROUGH 6KM
AND IT IS LIKELY THAT THE STORMS WILL REMAIN MAINLY MULTICELL. 
ADDITIONAL TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING IN THE SWRN TX MOUNTAINS WHERE AIR
MASS HAS HEATED CONSIDERABLY THIS AFTERNOON.

MORE MOIST AIR MASS EAST OF THE DRYLINE/MOUNTAINS REMAINS
CAPPED...BUT WILL EXPERIENCE WEAKENING CINH AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
CONTINUES TO HEAT.  THIS MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO
GENERATE ADDITIONAL TSTMS FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE WRN TX PNHDL AND
SWRN TX DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  STRONGER UPDRAFTS MAY YIELD
ISOLD SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.

..RACY.. 06/15/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

30110473 35290352 36330361 36380253 35490234 34840244
33550304 30560318 29040313 

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