[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 151956
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151955 
CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-152130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1290
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0255 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN PA...SRN NY...NJ...WRN CT...NERN MD
AND NRN DE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 151955Z - 152130Z

THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS IS INCREASING AND A WW MIGHT BE NEEDED
BEFORE 21Z.

STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM
S-CNTRL NY INTO NWRN PA.  SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS INDICATE GREATEST
VERTICAL MOTIONS FIELDS CURRENTLY EXTEND FROM CENTRAL PA SWD INTO
NRN VA.

AIR MASS SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG.  AREA VWPS INDICATE MID LEVEL
WINDS OF 35-50 KTS WHICH IS RESULTING IN FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
FOR LONG LIVED SEVERE CONVECTION. HODOGRAPHS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH
FORECAST STORM MOTIONS SEWD AROUND 30 KTS.  POOR LAPSE RATES WILL
LIMIT HAIL POTENTIAL.

..JEWELL.. 06/15/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...PBZ...

41587898 42477450 41047187 40477383 38707485 39737769 

WWWW