[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 151854
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151853 
KSZ000-NEZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-152100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1289
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0153 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 151853Z - 152100Z

TSTMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND COULD BECOME SEVERE ACROSS NERN NM
AND ERN CO DURING THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS.  A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY
ACROSS PARTS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.

HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE HAS BEEN ADVECTION WWD ACROSS THE
CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH MID 40S TO THE
URBAN CORRIDOR...MID/UPPER 50S TO PUEBLO AND LIMON AND LOWER-MID 60S
IN THE PLAINS. PRESSURES CONTINUE TO FALL UPSTREAM AHEAD OF THE
FOUR CORNERS IMPULSE...AND LOW LEVEL SELY FLOW REMAINS STRONG FROM
THE TX PNHDL INTO ERN CO.  GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BENEATH STEEP MID TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES...MLCAPES RANGE FROM 1200
J/KG ALONG THE FRONT RANGE TO 2500 ON THE PLAINS.

MOUNTAIN CONVECTION HAS STARTED EARLY AND HAS STAYED ALONG THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THUS FAR AND MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS.  THE PLAINS
HAVE REMAINED CAPPED...BUT CINH SHOULD ERODE SUFFICIENTLY WITH
MID-UPPER 80S TEMPERATURES AND APPROACH OF THE UPSTREAM IMPULSE. 
THUS...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES/FRONTS MAY INITIATE ADDITIONAL
TSTMS...FIRST ALONG THE URBAN CORRIDOR...THEN OUT ON THE PLAINS.

THOUGH MIDLEVEL FLOW IS 25 KTS OR LESS...DIRECTIONAL SHEAR THROUGH
THE COLUMN AND STRONG INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS.
 VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE LIKELY.  ACTIVITY MAY
TEND TO CONGEAL INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S LATER THIS EVENING.  ONE WILL
LIKELY EVOLVE ALONG/NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT ACROSS NERN CO INTO
NWRN KS/SWRN NEB.  A SECOND MCS MAY FORM FROM SERN CO/NERN NM INTO
SWRN KS AND THE TX/OK PNHDL.

..RACY.. 06/15/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...CYS...ABQ...

36310528 37770525 38250527 38430533 38620530 38750531
38950526 39130532 40570569 40370488 41290261 41290210
40650133 37160148 36090201 35930363 

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