[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 150332
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150332 
KSZ000-NEZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-150500-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1280
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1032 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO/WRN KS/SRN NE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 472...

VALID 150332Z - 150500Z

AS OF 0320Z...MAIN CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS IS LOCATED JUST S OF
RUSSELL AND HAYS KS. THE DEVELOPING MCS CONTINUES TO BACKBUILD
PRESUMABLY ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY AND IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT. THESE STORMS PRIMARILY POSE A LARGE HAIL
THREAT. HOWEVER...LATEST PROFILER DATA FROM HAVILAND SHOWS NEARLY 20
KT OF 0-1KM FLOW...SO ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS
SUPERCELL ENVIRONMENT. 

FARTHER WEST...STORMS ACROSS ERN CO ARE GRADUALLY MOVING INTO A MORE
UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS WRN KS. THE IMMEDIATE CONCERN IS DAMAGING
WINDS...WITH 49KT GUST RECENTLY AT LA JUNTA. 

STORMS IN CO ARE MOVING INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS WRN
KS...WHICH IS ALSO WHERE A 40KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE FOCUSED
OVERNIGHT. NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL INCREASE LARGE SCALE LIFT...AND
GFS CONVECTIVE QPF FORECAST SUGGESTS SOME ORGANIZED STORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS SW KS FROM 06-12Z. OVERALL SETUP SEEMS TO SUPPORT
A REPLACEMENT WATCH FOR HAIL/WIND FOR PARTS OF FAR ERN CO/WRN AND
CNTRL KS AND SRN NE.

..TAYLOR.. 06/15/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

36969851 37590485 40060471 40349800 

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