[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 150701
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150700 
KSZ000-150900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1281
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0200 AM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 474...475...

VALID 150700Z - 150900Z

CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTIONS OF WWS.  NEW WW MAY BE NECESSARY
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS BY CURRENT 09Z EXPIRATION.

COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE CLUSTER OF STORMS ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS IS NOW PROGRESSING THROUGH/EAST OF THE HILL CITY/GARDEN CITY
AREAS. MOST RAPID EASTWARD ACCELERATION...AT SPEEDS UP TO 30 KT...
IS OCCURRING ON NORTHERN FLANK OF SQUALL LINE...NORTH OF REMNANT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/WEAK SURFACE FRONT...WHICH EXTENDS EASTWARD
ALONG/JUST NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.  EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW TO THE
NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY IS ENHANCING INFLOW/CONVERGENCE ALONG COLD
POOL...AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR BENEATH 20 TO 30 KT WESTERLY MID-LEVEL
FLOW.

GIVEN FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION REGIME BENEATH DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD...WHICH WILL
REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH DAYBREAK...INTENSE
CONVECTION WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH IN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
CAPE OF 2000 TO 4000 J/KG.  RISK OF LARGE HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS
WILL CONTINUE...AND GUSTY WINDS MAY CONTINUE TO ACCOMPANY NORTHERN
FLANK OF SQUALL LINE INTO THE CONCORDIA AREA BY 09-10Z. 
THEREAFTER...MERGER WITH ONGOING ACTIVITY NEAR MANHATTAN MAY OCCUR
...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE
CONCORDIA/MANHATTAN/SALINA AREAS BY DAYBREAK.

..KERR.. 06/15/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

38879999 39209962 39749921 39759862 39789777 39559700
39009659 38669624 38299669 38299733 38159819 37939895
37540000 37750079 

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