[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 150003
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150003 
PAZ000-NYZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-150130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1275
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0703 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OH...WRN AND NRN PA... AND WRN THROUGH CNTRL NY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 470...

VALID 150003Z - 150130Z

THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND WILL PERSIST ANOTHER FEW HOURS FROM SERN
OH...THROUGH WRN AND CNTRL PA AND WRN THROUGH CNTRL NY. GREATEST
WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE WITH CNTRL/NRN PORTION OF THE
LINE FROM CNTRL/NRN PA INTO NY NEXT FEW HOURS. 

THIS EVENING A SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED BOW ECHOES EXTENDS FROM WRN
NY NEAR JAMESTOWN SWWD THROUGH NW PA AND INTO ERN OH. NRN PART OF
LINE FROM NW PA THROUGH WRN NY IS MOVING EAST AT 45 TO 50 KT WHILE
SRN PART IS MOVING MORE SLOWLY TO THE SE AT 35 TO 40 KT. THE 35 TO
40 KT WSWLY LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE OH VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH GREAT
LAKES SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EWD INTO PA AND NY THIS
EVENING...AND MAY STRENGTHEN A LITTLE FURTHER. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
STRONG LOW LEVEL REAR INFLOW INTO THE SQUALL LINE...HELPING TO
MAINTAIN FAST FORWARD PROPAGATION ALONG THE NRN PARTS OF THE LINE.
TRAILING PART OF LINE FROM ERN OH INTO WRN PA IS BECOMING MORE E-W
ORIENTED AND PARALLEL TO THE DEEP LAYER FLOW. MOREOVER...MOIST
UNSTABLE SWLY LOW LEVEL INFLOW IMPINGING ON THIS PART OF THE LINE
MAY EVENTUALLY PROMOTE SOME BACKBUILDING. THIS SUGGESTS IN ADDITION
TO THE SEVERE THREAT...POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
TRAINING CELLS MAY INCREASE ACROSS SE OH AND SW PA THIS EVENING.

..DIAL.. 06/15/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

40258197 40838066 41387991 42557968 42897867 43357699
43057664 42207657 41617689 40917896 39828201 

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