[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 142029
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142028 
MIZ000-142200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1271
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0328 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL LWR MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 468...

VALID 142028Z - 142200Z

MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTICITY CENTER THAT EVOLVED FROM THE FORWARD
PROPAGATING MCS IS TRACKING ENEWD TOWARD THE THUMB REGION OF LWR MI.
 A FEW TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP VCNTY THIS FEATURE AND ARE
ATTEMPTING TO BUILD NEWD INTO NRN LWR MI.  HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL APPEARS TO BE ACROSS AREAS EAST OF
INTERSTATE 75 AND SOUTH OF A OSCODA-HOUGHTON LAKE LINE.  

FARTHER N...CLOUD CANOPY ALLOWED THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO COOL AND 18Z
GAYLORD MI SOUNDING WAS NOT PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE.  CLOUDS MAY CLEAR
SUFFICIENTLY FOR A LITTLE RECOVERY THIS EVENING.  MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CONTINUES TO TRACK EWD ACROSS WI AND STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES/ENHANCED VERTICAL SHEAR HAVE BEEN AIDING STRENGTHENING TSTMS
UPSTREAM.  SO...DESPITE THE RECENT LULL IN ACTIVITY ALONG NRN
PORTIONS OF THE WEATHER WATCH...THE THREATS FOR HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS
MAY INCREASE SOMEWHAT IN A COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE WAVE MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION.  AS A RESULT...WILL MAINTAIN NRN/ERN PORTIONS OF WEATHER
WATCH 468.

..RACY.. 06/14/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...

43388626 45358630 45718260 42898256 42958422 43308477 

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