[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 142016
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142015 
ILZ000-MOZ000-142145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1270
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0315 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN MO...AND W-CENTRAL IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 142015Z - 142145Z

MESOSCALE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM HOWARD/RANDOLPH COUNTIES IN
N-CENTRAL MO ESEWD INTO THE ST. LOUIS METRO AREA IS BEING MONITORED
FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE NEEDED
ACROSS ERN MO INTO W-CENTRAL IL.

STRONG HEATING CONTINUES IN VICINITY OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT FROM
MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS ERN MO INTO W-CENTRAL IL. THUNDERSTORM
ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN HOWARD/RANDOLPH COUNTIES IS IN FAR ERN PORTION
OF WW 469. ALTHOUGH VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DECREASING CU
EAST OF THIS CELL AND ONLY WEAK CONVERGENCE PER SURFACE OBS...SOME
POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY
EVENING IN THE AREA. RUC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FIELDS SHOW AIR MASS
BEING UNCAPPED AT 20Z. SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 AND DEWPOINTS
NEAR 70 ARE CONTRIBUTE TO 100MB MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500-3000 J/KG
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. ST. LOUIS VAD INDICATES
WEAK LOW-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT... SUGGESTING DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE
HAIL WILL LIKELY BE PRIMARY THREAT IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP EWD INTO
ERN MO AND/OR W-CENTRAL IL WITH TIME.

..BANACOS.. 06/14/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...

39899253 39689136 39439017 39298980 38958939 38738939
38418979 38189009 38099037 38099127 38149198 38169259