[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 141934
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141934 
MNZ000-NDZ000-142200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1269
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0234 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 141934Z - 142200Z

THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS SEVERE
WIND GUSTS ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN ND BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. 

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 19Z INDICATES INCREASING CONVECTIVE
TRENDS ACROSS W-CENTRAL ND...JUST TO THE SOUTH OF A FAST
MOVING/LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.
ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN ND THIS
AFTERNOON...AND GRADUALLY INCREASE AS MID-LEVEL JET ACROSS MT EJECTS
EWD FROM UPSTREAM...SRN ALBERTA TROUGH. THE 12Z ETA SHOWS SFC-6KM
SHEAR INCREASING FROM 35KT TO 55KT BETWEEN 20-03Z...WHICH WILL FAVOR
THUNDERSTORM ORGANIZATION. LIMITING FACTOR ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
AREA IS INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...SURFACE HEATING/STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES COMBINED WITH -17C TEMPERATURES AT 500MB WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
100MB MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG. WBZ HEIGHTS SHOULD REMAIN
LOW...AROUND 7 KFT. A FEW LONG-LIVED/LOW-TOPPED STORMS MAY DEVELOP
BY LATE AFTERNOON GIVEN MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WITH THREAT FOR
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL OR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

..BANACOS.. 06/14/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

45960018 46070221 47420305 48950295 48920011 48479850
47759771 46599669 45989658