[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 141921
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141920 
PAZ000-NYZ000-OHZ000-142115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1268
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0220 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NY AND NWRN PA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 141920Z - 142115Z

BOW ECHO MOVING THROUGH NWRN OH/SERN LWR MI SHOULD MAINTAIN
INTENSITY AS IT TRANSLATES ACROSS SWRN ONT AND NRN OH AND A SEVERE
TSTM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS
WRN NY AND NWRN PA.

BOW ECHO WAS MOVING EWD AT AROUND 45 KTS AND EXTRAPOLATION HAS IT TO
CLEVELAND BY 22Z AND INTO WRN NY/NWRN PA 23-00Z.  NORTH WEBSTER VAD
WIND PROFILE SHOWS A CLASSIC REAR INFLOW JET SIGNATURE WITH 50-60
KTS ABOVE 1 KM.  THE BOW ECHO IS WELL-DEVELOPED AND HAS BEEN
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE THROUGHOUT NRN IND/SRN LWR MI.

18Z SOUNDING FROM PITTSBURGH WAS NOT PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE...BUT A
FEW MORE HOURS OF HEATING AHEAD OF THE BOW WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN THE
RISK OF TSTMS THROUGH THE EVENING.  STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW
REGIME SHOULD CONTINUE SUPPORTING BOWS AND LEWPS AS THE MCS
TRANSLATES INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION/UPPER OH VLY. 
THUS...WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL SHOULD CONTINUE DOWNSTREAM AND A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

..RACY.. 06/14/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

43998057 44167686 41887680 41287794 41018062 

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