[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 141729
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141729 
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-141900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1267
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...LWR MI...NERN IND...NRN OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 467...468...

VALID 141729Z - 141900Z

BOW ECHO HAS ACCELERATED AND IS NOW MOVING ENEWD 45-48 KTS ACROSS
SRN LWR MI AND NRN IND.  CURRENT EXTRAPOLATION HAS THE LEADING EDGE
DTW-TOL LINE BY 20Z...CLE 22Z AND NWRN PA/OH BORDER BY 23Z.  FURTHER
ACCELERATION IS POSSIBLE.  CONSIDERABLE WIND DAMAGE HAS BEEN
REPORTED THROUGHOUT NRN IND AND SRN LWR MI AND GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF
DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS INSTABILITY...THIS IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE.  PSBL
65+ KT WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY ACROSS SERN LWR MI AND NRN OH THIS
AFTERNOON.  TSTMS MAY TEND TO BUILD SWD INTO PORTIONS OF ECNTRL IND
AND CNTRL OH THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

MEANWHILE...FARTHER N...VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MIGRATING ACROSS WI.  MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDING NWD
INTO THE THUMB AREA TOWARD ALPENA WHERE MLCAPES WERE 1000-1500 J/KG.
 TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NWRN LWR MI AND MOVE EWD
DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON. FALLING H5 TEMPERATURES COUPLED WITH
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
ORGANIZED TSTMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

OTHER TSTMS ALONG NRN ROTATING COMMA HEAD OF THE BOW ECHO EWD INTO
CNTRL LOWER MI MAY ALSO POSE LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREATS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ISOLD TORNADOES MAY ALSO OCCUR GIVEN LOWER
LCLS AND BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW VCNTY THE MCV FROM THE GRAND RAPIDS
AREA EWD TO THE THUMB AREA.

..RACY.. 06/14/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...ILN...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...IND...

39808706 41168578 42418564 43008628 45378628 45688256
42788255 42908061 40458071 40088467