[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 141026
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141025 
ILZ000-IAZ000-141300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1260
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0525 AM CDT MON JUN 14 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN IA INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 141025Z - 141300Z

CONTINUE WW 465...AREAS TO THE EAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS
ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL WW.

LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FRONTAL ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD TROUGH IN MAIN
BELT OF WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. HAS BECOME FOCUS
FOR INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT PAST FEW HOURS.  ISENTROPIC
ASCENT ON SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET OUT OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA/
NORTHEAST KANSAS/NORTHWEST MISSOURI...WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE
IN THE MID 60S...IS STEEPENING ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS SOUTHERN
IOWA...AND FORCING PARCELS TO CONDENSATION AND EVENTUAL LEVEL OF
FREE CONVECTION.  CAPE APPEARS TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 TO 2000
J/KG...SUPPORTING VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WITH LARGE HAIL IN FAVORABLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP EAST OF THE MOLINE IL AREA NEAR/SHORTLY AFTER
12Z...CONTINUING INTO AREAS SOUTH/WEST OF CHICAGO BY THE 15-17Z TIME
FRAME. HOWEVER...PRIMARY CONVECTIVE CLUSTER...WITH DAMAGING WINDS
BECOMING INCREASING THREAT IN ADDITION TO HAIL...APPEARS TO BE
CURRENTLY EVOLVING TO THE WEST OF THE DES MOINES AREA. THIS IS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH FOCUSED MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH/COUPLED JET STREAKS
EMBEDDED WITHIN BROADER CYCLONIC FLOW...WHICH WILL SHIFT ACROSS DES
MOINES BY 12Z...INTO THE CEDAR RAPIDS/OTTUMWA AREAS BY 15Z.

..KERR.. 06/14/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...DVN...DMX...

42069431 42479336 42239216 42069065 42008943 41918836
40998833 40578936 40559107 40799293 41049414 41709466 

WWWW