[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 140641
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140640 
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-140845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1259
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0140 AM CDT MON JUN 14 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN PA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 464...

VALID 140640Z - 140845Z

REMAINING VALID PORTIONS OF WW WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 08Z.

STRONGER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT
WAVE TROUGH LIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION IS BEGINNING TO
SHIFT EAST OF SURFACE WARM FRONT...WHICH EXTENDS ROUGHLY ACROSS THE
BUFFALO NY AREA INTO THE VICINITY OF PITTSBURGH.  GIVEN COOLER
LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA...AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION...
DESTABILIZATION DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
CONTINUING EASTWARD SEVERE THREAT.

OTHERWISE...STRONGER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TRAILING BACK INTO SURFACE
WARM SECTOR ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS.  BOUNDARY LAYER INFLOW INTO THIS ACTIVITY FROM THE
WEST CONTINUES TO SLOWLY COOL...AND POTENTIAL INSTABILITY IS WANING.

..KERR.. 06/14/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...

39668180 40258108 40478076 40738042 40628019 40507987
39898024 39168130 39228183 39548198 

WWWW