[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 141242
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141242 
ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-141445-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1261
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0742 AM CDT MON JUN 14 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN IA INTO NRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 465...466...

VALID 141242Z - 141445Z

CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 465 TIL 14Z EXPIRATION. 
CONTINUE WW 466.  AREAS TO THE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL INDIANA
ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL WW.

LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...AND ASSOCIATED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE
TROUGH...ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS.  LOWER
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN SUB-CLOUD LAYER NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO EVOLUTION OF COLD POOL ON LEADING EDGE OF
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER.  MESO HIGH HAS BECOME EVIDENT IN 12Z SURFACE
DATA ALONG A MOLINE/BURLINGTON/LAMONI AXIS...AND FURTHER
STRENGTHENING APPEARS POSSIBLE NEXT FEW HOURS.

THERE IS SOME CONCERN ABOUT DOWNSTREAM ADVECTION OF ANVIL CLOUD
COVER/PRECIPITATION DUE TO STRONG MID/UPPER SHEAR...WHICH COULD
LIMIT INSOLATION AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEM.  HOWEVER...ANY SURFACE
HEATING WHICH OCCURS WILL ENHANCE SURFACE PRESSURE PERTURBATION...
CONTRIBUTING TO RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS ALONG GUST FRONT AS IT
PROPAGATES EAST SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG/NORTH OF INTERSTATE 74 THROUGH
THE PEORIA AND BLOOMINGTON/NORMAL AREAS BY 15Z.

..KERR.. 06/14/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

41249248 42249079 42208925 41548782 40438772 39998858
39919009 40409300 40889370 

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