[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 140456
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140456 
IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-140730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1258
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1156 PM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN NEB...SRN IA AND EXTREME NW MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 140456Z - 140730Z

THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM PARTS OF EXTREME SERN NEB...
INTO SRN IA AND EXTREME NRN MO WITHIN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AREA WILL BE
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW LATER THIS MORNING.

A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT FROM THIS EVENINGS SUPERCELL
EXTENDS FROM NRN MO NWWD THROUGH SERN NEB. THE LOW LEVEL JET IS
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND VEER ACROSS SERN NEB LATER THIS MORNING
AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SD CONTINUES EWD TOWARD THE UPPER MS
VALLEY. THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL SUPPORT ADVECTION OF
HIGHER THETA-E AIR OVER KS NEWD INTO NEB AND IA. THIS IN CONJUNCTION
WITH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT NEWD
DESTABILIZATION INTO ERN NEB/IA WITH TIME. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AS STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET ENHANCES
LIFT ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. GIVEN EXPECTED
STRONGER LOW LEVEL FORCING THAN WITH STORMS DEVELOPING FARTHER
N...THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE ANY STORMS DEVELOPING IN THIS REGIME
WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO THE HIGHER LOW LEVEL THETA-E AIR.

..DIAL.. 06/14/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...

40459441 40349567 41259621 41929445 41669223 40819228 

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