[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 140419
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140418 
IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-140645-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1257
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1118 PM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NEB...THROUGH PARTS OF WRN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 140418Z - 140645Z

THREAT FOR ISOLATED HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY SPREAD EWD
THROUGH SERN SD...SWRN MN...NE NEB AND PARTS OF WRN IA NEXT FEW
HOURS. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK ARE MOVING EWD THROUGH
CNTRL SD INTO N CNTRL NEB. MID LEVEL ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE CONTINUES TO PROMOTE ELEVATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
ERN SD...SWRN MN INTO EXTREME NRN NEB. SWLY LOW LEVEL JET IS
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS SRN NEB IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE 00Z RAOB DATA SHOWED AN AREA OF HIGHER THETA-E
AIR OVER KS...AND AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND
VEERS...THETA-E ADVECTION WILL INCREASE THROUGH ERN NEB INTO PARTS
OF IA INTO THE EARLY MORNING. THE RETURNING HIGHER THETA-E AIR BELOW
COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL SUPPORT DESTABILIZATION AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES NEWD WITH
TIME. GIVEN PRESENCE OF CAP AND MOSTLY MID LEVEL ASCENT EXPECTED IN
THIS AREA...STORMS WILL NOT LIKELY TAP INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR.
HOWEVER...STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PRESENCE OF MID LEVEL ASCENT WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO PROMOTE MID LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER MAY ENHANCE ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

..DIAL.. 06/14/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...

43279438 42649388 42089454 42059620 42239760 42809799
43679746 44089567 

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