[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 140308
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140308 
PAZ000-NYZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-140445-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1256
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1008 PM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN /SRN OH...FAR NRN WV...WRN PA AND FAR SWRN NY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 463...

VALID 140308Z - 140445Z

A REPLACEMENT WW WILL LIKELY BY 04Z BE NEEDED FOR ERN PORTIONS OF WW
463 AS WELL AS AREAS DOWNSTREAM OF WW 463. 

LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND SFC DATA SUGGEST THAT MODERATE
INSTABILITY AXIS REMAINED OVER WRN PA/SWRN NY WITH MUCAPES FROM
1500-2000 J/KG EAST OF WW 463 AND AHEAD OF WELL DEVELOPED CONVECTIVE
LINE MOVING THROUGH ERN/SRN OH. EAST OF THIS AXIS...SEVERAL THOUSAND
FEET DEEP STABLE AIRMASS EXISTED AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE EWD
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS INTO CENTRAL PA AND MOST OF SWRN NY LATER
TONIGHT. 

EWD MOTION OF AROUND 40 KTS OF INDIVIDUAL BOWING SEGMENTS OF THE
MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE SUGGESTS THAT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT. RECENT AREAL VWP DATA INDICATES INCREASINGLY STRONG
LOW LEVEL SHEAR WHICH MAY FAVOR BRIEF TORNADOES WITH THE STRONGEST
BOWING SEGMENTS.

..CROSBIE.. 06/14/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...

39028516 39918362 40598206 41188121 42168042 42297926
41867905 40787966 38978156 

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