[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 140123
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140123 
OHZ000-KYZ000-VAZ000-TNZ000-140300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1255
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0823 PM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TN THROUGH ERN KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 462...

VALID 140123Z - 140300Z

TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR STORMS TO WEAKEN IN TN PORTION OF WW 462. OTHER
STORMS HAVE INTENSIFIED ACROSS NRN KY AND THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE
GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL NEXT 2 HOURS OR SO. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

GIVEN STABILIZING EFFECTS ASSOCIATED WITH COOLING BOUNDARY
LAYER...IT IS PROBABLE THAT STORMS OVER TN WILL NOT REINTENSIFY.
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY ACROSS CNTRL/ERN
KY WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG AND VERTICAL SHEAR SUFFICIENT
FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS
ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS AS IT MOVES NEWD
THROUGH AXIS OF INSTABILITY.

..DIAL.. 06/14/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...

35708562 36708499 37508467 37528549 38798424 38798272
37228347 35798366 

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