[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 132235
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132234 
MNZ000-SDZ000-140030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1252
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0534 PM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN SD THROUGH CNTRL MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 132234Z - 140030Z

ISOLATED STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND ISOLATED STRONG
WIND GUSTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED.

A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NERN MN SWWD THROUGH NRN SD.
OWING TO LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS ONLY
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE FROM NE SD THROUGH CNTRL MN WITH MLCAPE FROM 
500 TO 800 J/KG...BUT WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES. UNIDIRECTIONAL NATURE
OF THE WIND PROFILES ARE LIMITING DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SOME DEGREE.
HOWEVER...MID LEVEL FLOW IS STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT 30-40 KT OF 0-6
KM SHEAR...SUFFICIENT FOR MID LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION. STORMS MAY
INCREASE OVER NERN SD NEXT FEW HOURS AS ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH BETTER CONDITIONS THE ATMOSPHERE FOR
DEEP CONVECTION. POTENTIAL FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION... STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND LOW WET BULB ZERO LEVELS SUGGEST HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER
STORMS. RELATIVELY HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS
MAY ALSO ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS. MARGINAL
INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR FOR A
MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT.

..DIAL.. 06/13/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...

45779565 45189588 44639849 45709896 45829727